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3G iPhone failing to meet analyst predictions

Reports of the 3G iPhone’s inability to find success in Japan are beginning to accumulate. According to a recent Wall Street Journal article, market-research firm MM Research Institute reports Apple sold about 200,000 phones in Japan in the first two months since launch. Since then, demand has been falling steadily, and analysts now believe sales are unlikely to reach a total of 500,000 units.

In an earlier DailyTech article we wrote about a conversation senior analyst Inui Makio had with Japanese tech site ItMedia +D. He pointed out the potential reasons why the 3G iPhone may have lost momentum in Japan.

One interesting point that becomes apparent in the Wall Street Journal article is that Softbank, the Japanese iPhone carrier, and Apple continue to provide no hard numbers on how many iPhones have been sold in Japan. According to some analysts, Apple and Softbank’s silence may indicate the 3G iPhone is far from meeting initial expectations. According to the article, MM Research Institute had initially predicted 1 million iPhones may be sold in Japan.

In the Japanese cell phone market, domestic manufacturers continue to dominate. Nokia Corp., the industry leader in global shipments, has less than 1% share in Japan. Instead, Sharp Corp. leads the Japanese market, with about 25% of shipments. It was believed the 3G iPhone had the potential to break in to the Japanese market because of its strong brand name and popularity of its iPod music players.

The Wall Street Journal article goes on to talk about how many of the 3G iPhone's "new" features are not considered new in the Japanese market and that it was missing features that almost all Japanese cell phones have. The high price of the iPhone appears to be another limiting factor, according to the article.

Features the 3G iPhone lack include the ability to use pictograms in emails, the ability to watch digital television, and the ability to use the cell phone as an electronic wallet using Felica technology. Finally, many Japanese text message with one hand and this is not easy to do, due to the way the 3G iPhone is designed.

Takuro Hiraoka, an analyst for GfK Marketing Services Japan Ltd says there is hope for Japanese sales of the iPhone, though.  He argues, "Japanese users don't know what to do with an iPhone.  Sales could grow if Apple provides specific examples of how it can be used." 



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One handed texting
By 306maxi on 9/16/08, Rating: 0
RE: One handed texting
By Roffles on 9/16/2008 10:09:00 AM , Rating: 2
I can text pretty damned fast with one hand. Maybe 15-20wpm where I could do 25-30wpm with two hands. My Blackberry pearl has a nice and compact keyboard that, once you get used to, is perfect for one handed thumb typing. Especially because it guesses whole words correctly about 90% of the time after inputting just a few letters.


RE: One handed texting
By paydirt on 9/16/2008 1:22:44 PM , Rating: 2
Would you rather press a couple of keys to type a word or type eight keys to do it in kanji? I imagine that it is a pretty big disadvantage to text in kanji if you can do it in pictograms. Compare it to if you had a dictation type writer and were forced to use a regular keyboard to type. Same as the difference between DSL and cable Internet or 386 vs Pentium 3...

Definitely whoops by Apple but maybe their cost to include Pictograms is higher than the potential profit.


RE: One handed texting
By AnnihilatorX on 9/16/2008 10:20:53 AM , Rating: 2
It's Japanese though and we don't know how Japanese Iphone handles Japanese inputs.

I don't even own an iphone but does its wide profile hampers 1 hand texting? (It's an onscreen qwerty keyboard not a numpad)


RE: One handed texting
By 306maxi on 9/16/2008 10:33:20 AM , Rating: 2
Yes the size does hamper texting but I think the big problem is the lack of tactile feedback. With my N95 I can pick it up and as soon as I feel the bumps on the 5 key I know exactly where am without even looking. You just can't do this on the iPhone because of the touchscreen.

I take the other person's point about Blackberry's having a Qwerty keyboard and I see the point of that when you're going to be typing out long emails and so on but when most people text their texts are usually smaller than the 160 character limit per text message.


RE: One handed texting
By MrBeans on 9/16/2008 12:10:56 PM , Rating: 3
The iphone just doesn't have the features the japanese market wants, like that built in scanner thing, some kind of game that is played publicly.


RE: One handed texting
By AnnihilatorX on 9/16/2008 3:14:05 PM , Rating: 2
QR Code is not a game thing
It is usually embedded at magazines or advertisements. They can be decoded into an URL by a camera mobile phone and launches the web browser of the phone to that webpage.


RE: One handed texting
By Nyu on 9/16/2008 5:26:50 PM , Rating: 2
The lookup for Kanjis in the iPhone has a 1-2 secs delay per symbol, which makes it a total pita to use.


Don't know???
By HighWing on 9/16/2008 1:28:19 PM , Rating: 3
quote:
He argues, "Japanese users don't know what to do with an iPhone. Sales could grow if Apple provides specific examples of how it can be used."


*laughs* I find this statement highly amusing. If the general population doesn't know what to do with your product, then chances are you either have very poor advertising, or (what I think is more the case here) there is no real market for your product.

The very fact that this phone does not have many features that are standard on other Japanese phones should be a big clue to apples marketing team. I mean honestly that is like releasing the iPhone without txt messaging here. Why would you or anyone want to buy a phone that does not have standard features that every other phone in your market has?




RE: Don't know???
By OPR8R on 9/16/2008 6:25:34 PM , Rating: 2
No place to put a cell phone strap/lanyard/charm...

Everyone (exaggeration I know) in Asia has one of those on their phone.


By ilovetruth on 9/16/2008 2:33:22 PM , Rating: 2
The refered market-research firm MM Research Institute doesn't publish any report on the iPhone sale in Japan, but they just answered to inquiries from US news firms by their opinion and/or guess. The number "200,000" was a hypothesis first put by UBS analyst Mr. Inui, later repeated by many persons and firms without verification.




why not iphone?
By Jhoosier on 9/16/2008 8:30:40 PM , Rating: 2
I live in Japan and use my phone quite like a Japanese person does. Texting one-handed is a necessity. You have to do it while holding an umbrella, or while riding a bike, or while doing all three at the same time(believe me, I've seen it).

Brand loyalty isn't such a big thing, I'd agree with the commenter up-thread who says game franchise loyalty is a bigger thing for game systems.

I currently have a Samsung, and didn't realize a lot of its limitations when it comes to the Japanese market, like the e-wallet and QR code reading ability. Not to mention that the iphone is at least twice as expensive as every other cell phone on the market (according to my severely informal one-man poll). And texting in kanji is really confusing. I'd get faster at it over time, but it seems very unwieldy at first.




its a disaster
By jithvk on 9/17/2008 1:09:36 AM , Rating: 2
it is a disaster here in India also. one local airtel vendor told me that he could only sell 4 iPhones since its launch. i dont know the reason in Japan, but in India, its high price tag is the main reason. You can easily buy 3 or 4 phones having the same features with the money you spend for an iPhone. Also, with feature rich phones like nokia n95 and n96 available really cheap, who would spend Rs36,000( almost $700) for an iPhone?




Appletron. Transform!
By austinag on 9/16/2008 1:17:35 PM , Rating: 1
They don’t like the Iphone because it’s too smooth. If it looked like it could unfold into a robot, they would buy them like crazy.




Same old story
By lightfoot on 9/16/08, Rating: -1
RE: Same old story
By Enoch2001 on 9/16/2008 1:45:46 PM , Rating: 3
quote:
Due to national pride the Japanese are fiercely loyal to local brands and will NEVER buy imported products if given a choice.


As much as I would like to believe this, I find it hard to. The article clearly states that the iPhone lacks features which pretty much all Japanese cell phones have (sound familiar *cough* MMS *cough* video recording), and it possesses nothing that other cell phones haven't already done for years there. The Japanese have always had the best technological toys first and been ahead of the curve. The fact that the iPhone is doing bad there shouldn't surprise anyone (*cough* Xbox/360 *cough*)...


RE: Same old story
By foolsgambit11 on 9/16/2008 3:00:52 PM , Rating: 2
Really? You're going to bring up the Xbox 360 as a counter-argument? Because it seems to me that the 360 really supports the OP's point that the Japanese are fiercely loyal. When it was released, it was decidedly more powerful than Sony's offering (which was still the PS2) but failed to impress. Part of this would of course be the game catalog, but still, I think most would agree that mainly the Japanese were willing to wait for Sony to release the PS3.


RE: Same old story
By AnnihilatorX on 9/16/2008 3:19:29 PM , Rating: 2
I'd think otherwise. Japanese are loyal not to the console brand but the game franchises. Idol M@ster is insanely successful and pretty much the main drawing power of Xbox360 sales in Japan. But it alone is not enough. If you have a good game catalog (exclusives of course), it has a chance to succeed.
Japanese just doesn't like western FPS like Gears of Wars, Halo etc, which is pretty much are best sellers here. Most Japanese style RPG exclusives in Xbox360, although made by popular game studios, are not established franchises; hence can't draw attention of existing fan bases of such a game.


RE: Same old story
By lightfoot on 9/17/2008 1:19:03 AM , Rating: 2
So explain why these Japanese developers refuse to release titles on the Xbox despite Microsoft actively attracting them? Might it have something to do with the fact that their fans would be outraged if their favorite series was released on a American console - even if it was cross-platform?


RE: Same old story
By AnnihilatorX on 9/17/2008 6:31:43 AM , Rating: 2
Now game studios are a different story to consumers. You don't know what's behind the scenes really on Sony's side.


RE: Same old story
By Nyu on 9/16/2008 5:30:37 PM , Rating: 2
That's nonsense. The iPod is having an overwhelming success in Japan, and beats sony's players by far in sales.


RE: Same old story
By michael2k on 9/16/2008 6:52:38 PM , Rating: 2
It took several years, however. I would give the iPhone a year before I would pass judgement.


RE: Same old story
By lightfoot on 9/17/2008 1:11:46 AM , Rating: 2
You honestly think that Sony (or anyone else for that matter) offer a true alternative to the iPod? Where is Sony's iTunes? Where are all the 3rd party accessories for Sony's products? The iPod is successful in Japan just for the fact that there are no viable Japanese alternatives.

Name any foreign company in any industry that has a dominant market share in Japan that also has domestic competition. Autos? Nope. Electronics? Nope. Even beef and wheat are discriminated against despite no appreciable domestic alternative.

In the past the behavior was reinforced by punishing tariffs and manipulative currency exchange rates. Although trade barriers have been reduced, national pride remains a difficult obstacle for foreign companies.


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