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Kindle Fire

ChangeWave survey  (Source: fortunebrainstormtech.files.wordpress.com)

ChangeWave survey  (Source: fortunebrainstormtech.files.wordpress.com)

  (Source: Flurry Blog)
Kindle Fire early adopters put iPad purchases on hold, iOS and Android lead in game revenue

Amazon's Kindle Fire tablet is creating a lot of buzz in the mobile industry. In fact, some customers are willing to delay iPad purchases to buy the Kindle Fire instead.

The tablet industry hasn't been very competitive over the past year or so despite the number of tablets available on the market. Apple's iPad/iPad 2 have dominated tablet sales and left Android-based tablets in the dust. According to a recent comScore study, iPads accounted for 97.2 percent of U.S. tablet traffic in August 2011.

But in five days, Amazon's Kindle Fire will hit the market as a representation of Android (even though Amazon has created its own build of Android's 2.3 Gingerbread operating system), and this fresh-faced tab is expected to be the first worthy competitor of the iPad.

In fact, a new ChangeWave survey conducted by RBC Capital Markets, a Canadian investment bank, said that 26 percent of those who pre-ordered a Kindle Fire or strongly plan to have delayed the purchase of an iPad.

The ChangeWave survey, which included 2,600 "early adopters types," found that 5 percent had pre-ordered a Kindle Fire or strongly planned to. In 2010, the survey found that only 4 percent were very likely to purchase the original iPad.

Of the 5 percent who pre-ordered the Kindle Fire (or planned to), 26 percent said they would put an iPad purchase on hold.

The Kindle Fire has some real perks to it, such as a $199 price tag compared to the iPad 2's price tag of $499 and up. However, Kindle Fire isn't a full-featured tablet like the iPad 2. Some Kindle Fire specs include a 7-inch multi-touch display, a 1 GHz Texas Instruments OMAP 4 dual-core processor, 512 MB memory, 8 GB storage capacity, 802.11n Wi-Fi connectivity, and Amazon's new Web browser Amazon Silk. Amazon has also announced extras such as apps for Kindle Fire as well as the Kindle Owners' Lending Library, which allows customers to borrow up to one book per month with a $79 annual Amazon Prime membership.

The iPad 2, on the other hand, offers a few extras that Kindle Fire doesn't, such as a 3G option, a camera, and a microphone. It also offers up to 64 GB of storage.

Despite these differences, the Kindle Fire is holding its own as a strong competitor, since it still possesses basic abilities such as internet browsing, apps, music and video playback. Some reports even estimate that Kindle Fire will experience better sales than the iPad this holiday season.

In other mobile-related news, a new study by Flurry, which builds mobile application analytics, has found that iOS and Android-powered devices are taking over in the portable game software realm, which was once dominated by the likes of Nintendo.

According to the study, Nintendo's DS dominated the share of U.S. revenue generated for portable games in 2009 at 70 percent, while iOS and Android-powered devices were at 19 percent and Sony's PSP sat at 11 percent. In 2010, these numbers changed to 57 percent for Nintendo DS, 34 percent for iOS and Android, and 9 percent for Sony PSP. In 2011, where November and December were estimated based on the prior 10 months of this year, iOS and Android climbed to the top position with 58 percent, Nintendo DS at 36 percent, and Sony PSP at only 6 percent.

In just two years, iOS and Android tripled their market share from about 20 percent in 2009 to about 60 percent in 2011. Together, iOS and Android game revenue was at $500 million, $800 million, and $1.9 billion for 2009, 2010 and 2011 respectively. For Nintendo DS and Sony PSP combined, they posted $2.2 billion, $1.6 billion and $1.4 billion for 2009, 2010 and 2011 respectively.

Experts say free or 99-cent apps compared to $20 to $60 cartridges are what's tipping the scale. Back in March, Rovio Mobile CEO Peter Vesterbacka even went as far as saying console games are "dying" in favor of mobile games.

Sources: CNN, Flurry



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By therealnickdanger on 11/10/2011 10:19:17 AM , Rating: 2
Stop the presses. Clearly, the only in that headline is that people that want a Fire do not want an iPad, either due to cost or other reasons.

Just think if Nintendo stopped making hardware and just focused on making games for Android and iOS and released an official emulator app? That would be awesome. Sony is getting closer to that business model with their Android/PSP hybrid.




By retrospooty on 11/10/2011 10:35:34 AM , Rating: 2
"So....... 1.3% of Fire buyers are delaying an iPad purchase?"

That isnt what this means. The survey was of the pre-orders. Of that subset (sample size) 25% bought this instead of ipad. What this means is 25% of the sample size, not 1.3% of the total... Its like a poll.

If they conduct a poll of 1000 people and say 50% vote rep and 50% vote dem, you cant say "only 500 people vote dem, the rep's will clearly win"



By therealnickdanger on 11/10/2011 10:41:45 AM , Rating: 3
The point of sampling is to represent the whole.

If 26% of the 5% who were sampled that pre-ordered the Fire did so instead of buying an iPad, then that's 1.3% of the total. Are you saying that this was not a sample, but in fact is actual?


By retrospooty on 11/10/2011 10:47:38 AM , Rating: 2
"26% of the 5% who were sampled that pre-ordered the Fire did so instead of buying an iPad"

That is what it means... Exactly what you typed.

It does not mean that Apple will likely lose only 1.3% of its potential sales. It will likely be alot higher... Probably closer to 25%.


By therealnickdanger on 11/10/2011 11:09:28 AM , Rating: 1
... but in this specific case, 1.3% of the people won't be buying an iPad. Are we having a semantics issue here? I feel like we're in agreement, but still arguing.


By cjohnson2136 on 11/10/2011 11:12:09 AM , Rating: 3
That 1.3% is meaningless though. Yes if you are talking about those speific individuals then ok that 1.3% of people won't buy an iPad over the Fire. But the point is to use the data to figure out on average how many people won't buy an iPad over a Fire. Which is why that 26% is the important number. The 1.3% is irrelevant.


By retrospooty on 11/10/2011 11:19:14 AM , Rating: 2
Exactly... I think you said it here... "if a sample holds off on an iPad at a rate of 25% it is predicted that the whole population will fall roughly around that same percent."

I would guess that once these get out there and people see them and use thier friends and realize that this $200 tablet does everything most people need (Internet) and will opt not to spend $500 for higher end ones that dont add any value for most people. Give it a year and I gaurantee that 25% goes way up.

What it means? The days of $500 tablets are coming to a close.


By Fritzr on 12/3/2011 10:06:52 AM , Rating: 2
You are correct...1.3% of the total population buying a tablet answered the suvey AND delayed/canceled an iPad purchase.

Based on 25% of those responding to the survey delaying/canceling an iPad, it is estimated that 25% of the entire population buying a tablet delayed/canceled an iPad purchase.

The difference in the numbers is due to the fact that the entire population did not respond to the survey.

There is an error margin that is usually posted along with the results. Usually on the order of+/-2% to 3%. The percentage of the whole & the error margin are calculated using a mathematics called 'statistics' that is known to be very accurate.

In other news, the sun is perceived to rise in the East even though it is stationary while the Earth actually rotates to create the illusion of a sun moving across the sky.


By cjohnson2136 on 11/10/2011 10:57:57 AM , Rating: 5
The point of a sample is to get an idea of the whole population. So if a sample holds off on an iPad at a rate of 25% it is predicted that the whole population will fall roughly around that same percent. So the fact that of potential tablet buyers saying about 1/4th of them will hold off buying an Ipad and buy a Fire instead is pretty big. Learn stats before commenting.


agreed
By kleinma on 11/10/2011 10:36:15 AM , Rating: 4
This is a horrible article that makes no sense and I can't even finish reading it because it simply is that bad.

26% of 5% of people who either did order or thought about ordering something???? what the hell kind of statistics are you spinning here???




RE: agreed
By retrospooty on 11/10/2011 10:39:53 AM , Rating: 2
Its really not that difficult.

Up to 25% of the sample size decided not to get and Ipad, and went with a Kindle.

What it means? Apple will lose some business to this reasonably priced alternative that does most everything people need it to do.


RE: agreed
By Brandon Hill (blog) on 11/10/2011 10:41:37 AM , Rating: 2
It seemed pretty clear from the article what was being expressed. Retrospooty even broke it down in the post above.

5% of those surveyed said that they would purchase an Kindle Fire.

Of that 5%, 26% said that they were delaying the purchase of an iPad. Seems pretty cut and dry.

So let's say that I surveyed 10,000 people. The 5% would represent 500 people wanting a Kindle Fire. Of that 500 that want a Kindle Fire, around 125 were delaying the purchase of an iPad.


RE: agreed
By retrospooty on 11/10/2011 10:50:04 AM , Rating: 2
I dont know what was so hard to see there, unless its just people not wanting to agree that maybe 1/4 of potential ipad sales will go with something cheaper that does what they need it to do. Most people want internet, email etc... the rest of fluff.

Without looking at any stats, just guessing, I would say the # might be higher. all the $500 tablets are just too high. I would bet that way more than 25% go with a cheaper alternative.


RE: agreed
By priusone on 11/10/2011 1:30:14 PM , Rating: 2
...and the reason those stats are so low is because... "Well, John bought his wife one. And Brian bought his wife a 3G bright one! And you want to give me one of those Amazon thingies? You don't love me anymore!"

Oops, think I was channelling my ex for a minute there.


Does no one know statistics?
By Shadowself on 11/10/2011 1:44:35 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
Of the 5 percent who pre-ordered the Kindle Fire (or planned to), 26 percent said they would put an iPad purchase on hold.


Even if the original sample set were 1 billion, there is still only 5% that have pre ordered the Kindle Fire (or are very likely to do so). 5% is 5%. There's no other way to read that.

Additionally, of that 5%, 26% "would put an iPad purchase on hold". That is 1.3% of the entire sample size (does not matter if that is 1 billion people or 1,000 people it's still 1.3%).

Note that it does NOT say that it is 26% of the 5% plus 26% of the remaining 95%. The study is not saying 26% of tablet purchasers. It is not saying 26% of the entire sample size.

Also everyone needs to note that it says "would put an iPad purchase on hold". It does NOT say that they *will* put an iPad purchase on hold. It is a possibility the way it is worded. "Would", "Could", "Might" ... none of those equate to "Will". From the way the study is worded there is no way to know what percentage *will* put an iPad purchase on hold.

Additionally, the study says that 26% of that 5% "would put an iPad purchase on hold ". It does not say that 26% of that 5% will *not* buy an iPad, just that they are likely to put the purchase on hold. Maybe they'll buy one next year. Maybe they'll wait until Christmas. Maybe they'll never buy one (put the purchase on hold indefinitely). There is absolutely no way to tell which, if any, of these interpretations of "on hold" pertains to any fraction of the 26% of the 5%.

This study is basically flawed from the outset. It should have been restricted to those who are planning on buying (or at least are very likely to buy) a tablet of *some kind* within the next 14 months (to get the study to include the Christmas buying season of 2012). As it is, the study does not clearly enough differentiate between people who have no intention of buying *any* tablet within the foreseeable future and those who are likely to do so.

With the underlying flaws of the study and the ambiguous delineations of who might do what and the "on hold" concept without any clear boundaries of what that means this study is basically useless.




RE: Does no one know statistics?
By lightfoot on 11/10/2011 4:36:18 PM , Rating: 2
It's not totally worthless. I agree that it would have been more useful to only survey people in the market for a tablet (or at least ask the early adopters if they were in the market for a tablet.)

I personally AM an early adopter. I have preordered a Kindle Fire (that puts me in the 5% group.) I have NOT put an iPad purchase on hold. Why? Because I never intended to buy an iPad in the first place. The 1.3% of the sample set could well be ALL of the people who were considering buying an iPad. It also could be a much smaller portion. It would have been valuable had they asked ALL of the early adopters if they were planning on making an iPad purchase, but unfortunately they did not.

What IS clear is that Apple should be VERY worried about this trend. The Amazon Fire clearly is displacing iPad sales, and it hasn't even been released yet.


RE: Does no one know statistics?
By retrospooty on 11/10/2011 5:22:15 PM , Rating: 2
"With the underlying flaws of the study and the ambiguous delineations of who might do what and the "on hold" concept without any clear boundaries of what that means this study is basically useless."

Without getting into the validity of the study, it doesnt take a rocket scientist to see that $200 tablets are alot cheaper than $500 tablets. Especially when most people just need internet. The $500 ones are better and have more features, but simple internet is the main thing most people want. If you cant image at least 25% of potential tablet buyers will not get an ipad now, then I cant help you.

Regardless of this particular study.... This WILL usher in the end of the $500 tablets. Within a year I bet you even the mightily overpriced Apple ipad's will come down in price. - and thats a good thing for everyone.


For all that is Techy . . .
By Denigrate on 11/10/11, Rating: 0
RE: For all that is Techy . . .
By retrospooty on 11/10/11, Rating: 0
RE: For all that is Techy . . .
By Tiffany Kaiser on 11/10/11, Rating: -1
RE: For all that is Techy . . .
By Denigrate on 11/10/11, Rating: 0
RE: For all that is Techy . . .
By Tiffany Kaiser on 11/10/11, Rating: 0
RE: For all that is Techy . . .
By cjohnson2136 on 11/10/2011 1:22:37 PM , Rating: 2
Hmmm that reply to your comment Tiffany sounds a lot like a personal attack and goes against the TOS.


RE: For all that is Techy . . .
By Denigrate on 11/11/2011 9:38:08 AM , Rating: 2
Just the facts, and her headline which was horrible was fixed. Just more crap from the Tiffster.


RE: For all that is Techy . . .
By xti on 11/11/2011 12:02:04 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
You have no votes left for this article.


foiled!


$500, really?
By jimbojimbo on 11/10/2011 12:31:43 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
The iPad 2, on the other hand, offers a few extras that Kindle Fire doesn't, such as a 3G option, a camera, and a microphone. It also offers up to 64 GB of storage.

I think they forgot to add that $500 is the starting price for an iPad, with 16GB, and 3G and that 64GB of storage shoots the prices WAY up. A 64GB model costs $699 and a 64GB model with 3G costs $829!!




RE: $500, really?
By name99 on 11/11/2011 10:06:17 PM , Rating: 2
And your point is what? The Kindle Fire comes with 8GB of storage and no 3G, so it was compared to the nearest available iPad. (Heck, a better comparison, more apples to apples, would have been to compare against the price of a low-end iPad1 on eBay.)

This is not some pro-Apple anti-Amazon plot, it is common sense. If someone tells you you could, I don't know, replace your three year old desktop PC with something newer and cheaper, you don't say: "well, my current desktop was a $1000 mid-range Dell, so obviously the sensible thing to do is to compare it against the price of quad-xeon servers".


Not surprised
By AerieC on 11/10/2011 1:40:08 PM , Rating: 3
Not surprised that mobile OSes are crushing DS/PSP.

1. Android and iOS games are catering to the mainstream. Simple puzzle games, farmville-esque games, and other really simple games that don't take much thought/time investment to play.

2. The mainstream crowd is bigger than the standard gamer crowd.

3. $1-$5 games on iOS/Android vs $35+ games on DS/PSP

4. ????

5. Profit.

The mainstream crowd doesn't care if they can get "better" games on dedicated gaming platforms like DS/PSP. To them, it's another piece of crap that they'd have to buy, carry around, AND buy software for.

They already have their phone with them everywhere they go, why not play a few cheap, simple games?




Needs a bigger screen...
By kmmatney on 11/10/2011 12:48:52 PM , Rating: 2
The kindle looks nice - but the 7" screen sort of kills it for me. I would be very interested if they had a 10" version for $100 more.




Its Books and Internet.
By fteoath64 on 11/11/2011 3:51:48 AM , Rating: 2
Do not forget the kids market which is 2X to 3X that of most adult market in volume. Most parents would hardly trust a toddler with an iPad since they might drop it or break it and it is really too big in size. At $500 a piece, its a costly toy.

This Fire not only close 2.5X less, it is smaller hence less likely to be dropped or have food spilled over it!. The Fire will have a good run for at least 1 year. Also the Nook Tablet is a better buy for those more interested in lower cost membership fees and may frequent a B&N store. Free ebook reading from their store and have a chance to check out the physical books on display there. Instead of contemplating an iPad for the kids to share, now I will get 3 Fires and be done with it.




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