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Flat Panel Sales Chart  (Source: DisplaySearch)
TV sales are shrinking globally as install base grows

DisplaySearch is predicting that growth in the TV market will slow to less than 4% year-over-year compared to 2010 when the market grew 18% year-over-year thanks to strong growth outside of America. Flat panel TV sales grew 32% in 2010 on a unit basis, but that growth will drop to 12% in 2011.

“As the household installed base for flat panel TVs increases above 50-60%, the growth rate slows, which is currently the situation in Japan, Western Europe, and North America. Emerging markets, however, are still ripe for sustained growth due to a low level of household flat panel TV penetration,” noted Paul Gagnon, Director of North America TV Research for DisplaySearch.

LCD TVs will continue to be the primary TV shipped in 2011 reports DisplaySearch and will account for 84% of total shipments globally during the year. Breaking the LCD TV market down a bit more, about half of the LCD sets shipped in 2011 will be the LED backlit type. The plasma TV saw a big turnaround in 2010 with 30% growth from the previous year. Growth in that same segment is expected to slow considerably this year and continue to decline in the last half of the year as LCDs take more of the market. 

In Q4 2010, 3D TV shipments counted for only 10% of the global TV revenues with over 2 million units shipped. However, that number will grow significantly with DisplaySearch predicting that by 2014 3D TVs will be about 50% of global TV revenues with 100 million units shipping globally.

The major areas driving growth in the segment are China, Asia Pacific, Latin America, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. These regions are averaging 17% growth each year with Asia pacific being the strongest thanks to the India market.

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By Targon on 5/3/2011 7:56:24 AM , Rating: 3
These are the same type of people who make claims like "AT&T will only see 50,000 new subscribers compared to 900,000 for Verizon". Stupid analysts should not be allowed to speak, because they are wrong more often than a broken clock.

The initial wave of people buying a flat panel TV is still here, and as the price drops, people will continue to replace their older CRT based TVs with a flat panel. For many, $400 is still too much money, so they just can't afford to replace their old 27 inch CRT TV with a 32 inch flat panel. The $200 price point is where many who have been holding out will finally make the switch. Global demand will also follow this trend, where the price to consumers has to fall below a certain point before buying a new TV is acceptable.

Now, if prices are not expected to continue dropping, then we will see sales decline, and we will also see continued movement as the low-cost 32 inch panels become 1080p but will be 60Hz, while the more expensive will be in the 120Hz and above range. It all comes down to the perceived value, and price.

On the 3D front, if there are relatively few 3D movies that people want to watch, why would anyone spend the extra money for a 3D TV at this point? 3D TVs will sell better as the price drops, but if the price premium does not disappear, the lack of GOOD 3D content will keep most people from buying it. In the same way that buying a color TV when almost every broadcast was in black and white would seem like a waste of money, buying a 3D TV for several hundred dollars more, plus the cost for the active shutter glasses when most 3D is stupid garbage makes it a waste of money. At this point, Avatar is one of the few decent implementations of 3D, with the majority being lame "random objects that pop out of the screen at you" type. That isn't worth it for most people.




By amanojaku on 5/3/2011 8:40:35 AM , Rating: 2
Look at the chart. If it is correct, there really aren't any CRT sales any more, and the total number of sales of any display type has been flattening out, hence the flattening out of flat panel displays.


By Shadowmaster625 on 5/3/2011 9:59:33 AM , Rating: 2
Of course CRTs arent selling anymore. But there are plenty of them in the aftermarket. You can get one on craigslist any time you want. 27" for under 50 bucks, easy. If you look hard enough you can get them for basically free. You gotta figure for every 3-5 32" LCD TVs sold, there is one old 25-32" CRT going onto the aftermarket. That is a LOT of TVs.


By acer905 on 5/3/2011 12:19:12 PM , Rating: 2
Not to mention many people who already have working CRT's that feel absolutely no reason to spend extra money. It will take a long time for all the CRT's to die off and be replaced


By tastyratz on 5/3/2011 12:36:29 PM , Rating: 2
And let them keep their 27in good enough sdtvs with rabbit ears and digital converters. These are not primary consumers of any high end or even entry point electronics. A used 27 for 50 bucks does not equate 400 for a 42in decent tv as a bad deal just as a 1985 ford temp for $200 is not hurting the sales of 2012 lexus cars.

If you don't have any money it does not matter what it costs. That 27in tv new cost equivalent to more than $400, and that $200 price point is reachable on sale new for crap tvs or used flat panels on craigslist.

The reality is just market penetration at this point. Most people already have a reasonably decent flat panel in their household that does not necessitate replacement. While new flat panels are better than old ones we fall into bluray vs dvd territory here as the difference gets smaller (the sd round crt vs their hd fptv is like vhs vs dvd)


By Noya on 5/3/2011 5:08:14 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
let them keep their 27in good enough sdtvs with rabbit ears and digital converters. These are not primary consumers of any high end or even entry point electronics.


I would have to say you're wrong. I have a 60" Panasonic 1080p plasma, a 42" Vizio 1080p LCD...and I still have two (27" and 32") JVC CRT's in bedrooms! One with a DVR and the other with a full cable box.

While none of my gear is high-end, I did buy the Vizio when they first came out with a 42" 1080p- Gallevia I think it's called. I also have a 5.1 theater I put together with Polk Monitors, an Onkyo receiver and Velodyne subwoofer.


By Targon on 5/3/2011 5:48:55 PM , Rating: 2
This goes back to the idea that most of us have had multiple TVs in our homes for decades now, so while things may flatten out when it comes to that "initial" flat panel sale, there are still many CRT TVs in homes that WILL be upgraded once the price vs. priority sweet spot has been hit.

If you are old enough, you will remember the days when a 14 inch black and white TV was selling for $200, with color TVs costing more. In time, it became a 14 inch color for $200, then a 19 inch color for $200, then a 25 inch and finally a 27 inch color TV for $200. The new CRT market never really hit the point where a 32 inch cost $200 before the big move came from flat panel displays. At this point, we have seen a 32 inch go for $1000 or more, then has slowly come down. You can get a 32 inch 1080p new for $400 or so(720p is cheaper), but it is JUST hitting that point now.

Notice we have not gotten to that $200 for a flat panel that matches the size of a 27 inch CRT, not yet at least, but we are getting close. With the different standards, I don't suggest ANYONE bother with a 720p, no matter how cheap due to the falling prices.

We also are seeing the 120Hz and above slowly lowering in price, and that in turn is driving the 60Hz displays down, which will eventually get us to that $200 price point. $200 is the magic number, where people will stop waiting for the prices to get cheaper and will just pick one up. Many of those who are low on money will look at a $200 price for a new flat panel TV as something they can get in one year, even if they can't just spend that money without planning for it.


By JediJeb on 5/3/2011 2:15:01 PM , Rating: 2
I still have my 31" Mitsu CRT I bought 15 years ago, I will upgrade to a flat panel when it finally quits working. I have watched TV on several flat panels and to be honest it doesn't look any better to me, and on many there is still a problem getting it to display correctly. My parents have a Sanyo that is only a year or two old and the display either has bars at the top and bottom which shouldn't be with a wide screen or the top and bottom are cut off or everyone looks fat because even the new directv box won't send the right signals to it. Maybe there is still some refining to be done on how they all handle the signals, or maybe just a few brands have problems but there needs to be some kind of standardization it seems, even the HD plasma at work has trouble sometimes.

I paid nearly $900 for the Mitsu I have now, and it has lasted 15 years, but I wonder if a flat screen will last that long, I definitely haven't had that much life out of flat panel computer monitors yet. I don't mind paying good money for something that will last me 10-20 years but I do not want to pay $500-$1000 for something that will need to be replaced in less than 15 years.


By Skywalker123 on 5/4/2011 5:53:48 PM , Rating: 2
chances are you'll be dead in 15 years, loosen that wallet and buy a flat screen.


By MrBlastman on 5/3/2011 11:29:54 AM , Rating: 1
What is really sad is there is zero mention of SED. I had really high hopes for that technology. But, thanks to the plague of society, the scourge of free markets, the destroyer of hope, the pilferer of fortunes by the fortunate, the reaper of hope, the most dastardly destructor of the universe--aka Lawyers... and that vile sidekick known as PATENT LAWS, Canon and Toshiba suffered a deathly blow.

The final exhale of air from their quivering corpse of hope was sickening, to say the least. A dark cloak has been now forever cast (seemingly so) over all of television humanity for all possible futures to come.

Yes, we all now must suffer while we cower in the dark corners of our living rooms. Our eyes, constantly raptured from the dank echoes of the screen, filled with white light and dull, yet grey images of blackness--oh woe is the lack of humanity here.

SED, how I lament thee. I so wish ye had the chance to caress my eyes with your silky black, shiny pleasure.


Not sure I see the same trend...
By Golgatha on 5/3/2011 9:07:34 AM , Rating: 2
I for one see the market expanding and switching over rapidly to LED based backlighting for LCD TVs. I can say I wouldn't purchase any LCD right now if it didn't employ LEDs for powering the backlighting.




RE: Not sure I see the same trend...
By Flunk on 5/3/2011 9:52:52 AM , Rating: 2
I don't think many people care enough about the back-lighting to buy another TV. If I was buying a new TV now I would buy a LED backlit one but I'm not going to replace my perfectly good LCD HDTV just for that and I'm a huge techy.


By Golgatha on 5/3/2011 11:55:47 AM , Rating: 2
Well me either. I have 2 60Hz LCDs with the older backlighting and 2 120Hz LED backlit TVs. If I was buying a new TV or a replacement, I would only get a LED set though.


RE: Not sure I see the same trend...
By Shadowmaster625 on 5/3/11, Rating: -1
RE: Not sure I see the same trend...
By Golgatha on 5/3/2011 11:57:13 AM , Rating: 2
No, I have less power usage, better colors, and slimmer profile to thank for my opinion of LED vs CCFL.


By ClownPuncher on 5/3/2011 12:37:06 PM , Rating: 2
Maybe if you're referring to RGB LED backlighting. Edge lit LED displays basically only offer better power consumption over their CCFL counterparts.


By ElFenix on 5/3/2011 1:51:39 PM , Rating: 3
i think the major reason people buy LED LCDs is because people think the pixels/dots use individual LEDs. iow, an actual LED TV. people sound very disappointed when they find it's only LED backlighting.


2011 Flat Panel TV Growth to Plummet 50% in 2011
By PrinceGaz on 5/3/2011 7:20:11 AM , Rating: 5
So I guess this article refers to 2011.




By yiannos on 5/3/2011 7:31:21 AM , Rating: 2
Great comment! I wanted to say something about that too.


Deminishing Returns like "3D"
By Arsynic on 5/3/2011 9:34:50 AM , Rating: 2
This is what happens when instead of thinner and cheaper flat panels, manufacturers like Sony focus on silly gimmicks like "3D" televisions. I have a Panny Plasma that's heavy and consumes too much power, but I just can't justify spending money on a new flat panel when gas is $4 a gallon and the price of food has gone up and I haven't had a raise in 5 years.




RE: Deminishing Returns like "3D"
By Dr of crap on 5/3/2011 10:29:05 AM , Rating: 2
NO NO - the ones in the know have spoken!

3D TV's will sell. You will buy one, even if you do not want to!

After all THEY said that 3D will sell! It has to happen!

Of course my 4 year old 55" LCD TV is not going to be replaced in the next 5 years at least, and maybe more, 3D or not!


RE: Deminishing Returns like "3D"
By ender21 on 5/3/2011 1:25:09 PM , Rating: 2
Ha! I know that was exaggeration, but at the end of the day, if you buy new in 5 years, it *will* be a 3D tv. Just like it *will* be color, it *will* be Stereo, it *will* have HDMI, etc., etc. Whether you use the included feature is a different matter altogether.


Shah, as if.
By SiliconJon on 5/3/2011 9:35:20 AM , Rating: 1
I still don't have a 42" in my shower, or one in my bedroom, and my kids still have CRT's. Clean food & water? Bah, screw that - all I care about is watching Bill-O while I poop and pr0n while I cook. Isn't that how it is with everybody?




RE: Shah, as if.
By Flunk on 5/3/2011 9:53:55 AM , Rating: 2
I don't think there are a lot of Americas starving, even in a recession.


RE: Shah, as if.
By SiliconJon on 5/3/11, Rating: 0
Stupid Journalist
By lightfoot on 5/3/2011 3:34:06 PM , Rating: 2
quote:
2011 Flat Panel TV Growth to Plummet 50%

quote:
TV sales are shrinking globally as install base grows

These two statements are mutually exclusive.

Even if the rate of growth goes down, it is still growth. TV sales cannot be shrinking if they are growing.

The chart is a "sales" chart, not an "installed" chart - it clearly shows that sales are still growing.




Growth will plummet?
By BernardP on 5/3/2011 4:43:05 PM , Rating: 2
Or rather something like "rate of growth will decrease"?

But it makes for a less interesting heading.

See also "decrease will soar."




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