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Blog: Science 2007 Hurricane Season: Where's the Beef?
Michael Asher (Blog) - July 31, 2007 1:12 PM
Print E-mail del.icio.us 69 comment(s) - last by vortmax.. on Aug 3 at 11:08 AM
Another milder-than-normal season takes shape

During the active 2005 hurricane season, the usual doom-and-gloom prophets blamed the storms on global warming. "Nature's wrath," we were told, "hath been unleashed". Aided by a complaisant media, we were told this was our wakeup call, come to punish us for our SUV-driving ways.

Then disaster struck.  The 2006 season not only didn't live up to predictions, it wound up being one of the quietest seasons of the past century. No matter. We were told to ignore this year-long blip, told that 2007 would come roaring back with a vengeance.

And yet, here we are, two full months into the season, and not a single hurricane has formed. Not one. Just two mild tropical storms, one of which didn't even strike land, and a third storm which never went above subtropical status. Hurricane forecasters are busily downgrading their predictions for the rest of the season.

And so it goes. The sky isn't falling yet. But what about the future? Will global warming wreck all our beach-going vacations?

There are two schools of thought regarding the effects of climate change on hurricane science. The first begins with the fact that hurricanes require warm water to form. Global warming means warmer water, leading to the naive conclusion is that more hurricanes will form. The second school realizes that hurricanes are heat engines -- driven not by raw temperature, but by temperature differentials between regions. Global warming warms the arctic and temperate belts, but not the tropics. This reduces the total energy available for major storm formation. It also increases upper-level wind shear, which tends to tear apart storms before they grow too strong. This school believes the long term effects of global warming will be fewer, milder storms.

Climate change aside, hurricanes come and go in cycles. Professor William Gray, one of the nation's most respected hurricane forecasters, believes storm activity will remain high for the next several years, due simply to a long-term cycle of changing Atlantic currents. A team of researchers led by Dr. Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center goes further. In a paper published last year, they claim storm rates have not risen over the past 100 years, but only that improved monitoring technology results in registering storms which would have previously been missed. And professors Vecchi and Soden's research on wind shear suggests no long-term storm activity increase should be expected.

I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm not selling my ocean-front condo just yet.

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Here's the reference...
By Rovemelt on 7/31/07, Rating: 0
RE: Here's the reference...
By masher2 (blog) on 7/31/2007 3:11:56 PM , Rating: 3
Dr. Landsea's rebuttal of the Holland paper:
quote:
Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Hurricane Center, said the study is inconsistent in its use of data.

The work, he said, is " sloppy science that neglects the fact that better monitoring by satellites allows us to observe storms and hurricanes that were simply missed earlier . The doubling in the number of storms and hurricanes in 100 years that they found in their paper is just an artifact of technology, not climate change."...
Or even more tantalizing, Dr. Gray's comments on the CO2-tropical storm link:
quote:
The hypothesis that increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases the number of hurricanes fails by an even wider margin when we compare two other multi-decade periods: 1925-1965 and 1966-2006. In the 41 years from 1925-1965, there were 39 U.S. land-falling major hurricanes. In the 1966-2006 period there were 22 such storms -- only 56% as many. Even though global mean temperatures have risen by an estimated 0.4 Celsius and CO2 by 20%, the number of major hurricanes hitting the U.S. declined .
So which set of researchers are correct? Its interesting to note that Holland's paper was published just this week, but failed entirely to consider data from the mild 2006 season.

And there's a larger point here. On one side, we have scientists claiming global warming has no effect. On the other, we have those who claim it is...but even they agree the natural variance in the storm cycle is much larger than the total effects of global warming.

Neither side is screaming the sky is falling. We have only the media to thank for that


RE: Here's the reference...
By Rovemelt on 7/31/07, Rating: 0
RE: Here's the reference...
By masher2 (blog) on 7/31/2007 4:26:52 PM , Rating: 4
> "that year, which was not included in the study, would have ranked above average a century ago"

According to Gray and other noted researchers, this is only because a century ago, most storms which did not make landfall went unnoticed.


RE: Here's the reference...
By Scorpion on 8/2/2007 3:49:12 PM , Rating: 2
Towards the end of 2006? More likely the beginning. Anyone who writes scientific papers knows that it's not uncommon for a paper to take a full year or more for it to be published in a scientific journal. It can often go back and forth between reviewers and author. Of course it all depends on the journal. The more prestigious, the more time it sometimes takes. This in fact just happened to a colleague of mine who's paper just got published a year and a half after he had originally submitted his first draft.

I love's masher's oh so non-subtle sarcasm towards global warming.

Nevermind, I lied.


RE: Here's the reference...
By Master Kenobi (blog) on 7/31/2007 3:12:50 PM , Rating: 3
I'm not seeing how that article points out how he comes to the conclusion of humans causing global warming. All it says is that he "applied a sophisticated method of organizing the data and seems to indicate that there is a large question mark as to how it went from A to B and seems to think that human production of greenhouse gasses must fill in the gap".

Two things here that need to happen, he needs to prove that humans are causing it, all he has right now is a wild theory and some data that might show a correlation, two he needs to state exactly how he manipulated the data to show this conclusion, right now hes using buzzwords and vague language. I want a chart, and I want some hard numbers that can be verified, thats real science.


RE: Here's the reference...
By Rovemelt on 7/31/2007 4:01:16 PM , Rating: 2
If you want to see that author's analysis and the summary article leaves you unsatisfied, read the primary publication. The summary is kind of brief.


RE: Here's the reference...
By porkpie on 8/1/2007 5:45:47 PM , Rating: 2
I'm curious how you explain the fact that the number of land-falling hurricanes has gone down so sharply the last 50 years. If storm activity really is up, how do you explain that? Do you believe those evil CIA spy satellites are secretly steering hurricanes away from our borders?


RE: Here's the reference...
By Chillin1248 (blog) on 7/31/2007 3:19:17 PM , Rating: 2
The Great Global Warming Swindle:
http://www.torrentspy.com/torrent/1092477/The_Grea...

SUMMARY:
The film brings together the arguments of leading scientists who disagree with the prevailing consensus that carbon dioxide released by human industrial activity is the cause of rising global temperatures today.

That Earth's climate is changing and always has done is not disputed by anyone. That it is warming now is also not disputed by anyone. But some people think that the warming is our fault, whilst others believe we have nothing to do with it.

The film argues that rises in atmospheric carbon dioxide have nothing to do with climate change. Further, the present single-minded focus on reducing carbon emissions may have the unintended consequence of stifling development in the third world, prolonging endemic poverty and disease.

Recent research, presented in this film, apparently shows that the effect of cosmic radiation, and solar activity may explain fluctuations in global temperatures more precisely than the carbon dioxide theory.

An alternative explanation for rising global temperatures is based on research by the Danish Space Center. They found that as solar activity increases, cloud formation on Earth is significantly diminished and temperature rises.

‘Solar activity over the last hundred years, over the last several hundred years, correlates very nicely, on a decadal basis, with temperature.’

A respected Kenyan development expert says: ‘I don't see how a solar panel is going to power a steel industry, how a solar panel is going to power a railway network… There is somebody keen to kill the African dream, and the African dream is to develop. We are being told don't touch your resources, don't touch your oil, don't touch your coal; that is suicide.’

The film features an impressive roll-call of experts, in climatology, oceanography, meteorology, environmental science, biogeography and paleoclimatology, from such reputable institutions as MIT, Nasa, the International Arctic Research Centre, the Institut Pasteur, the Danish National Space Center and the Universities of London, Ottawa, Jerusalem, Winnipeg, Alabama and Virginia.


By Chillin1248 (blog) on 7/31/2007 3:28:51 PM , Rating: 2
Additional link (modified version):
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-302884751...

List of scientists included in the program:

Syun-Ichi Akasofu - Professor and Director, International Arctic Research Center

Tim Ball - Head of the Natural Resources Stewardship Project (Misattributed as Professor from the Department of Climatology, University of Winnipeg. Ball left his faculty position in the Department of Geography in 1996; the University of Winnipeg has never had a Department of Climatology.)

Nigel Calder - Former Editor, New Scientist from 1962 to 1966

John Christy - Professor, Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama in Huntsville and a Lead Author of Chapter 2 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report

Ian Clark - Professor, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa

Piers Corbyn - Weather Forecaster, Weather Action

Paul Driessen - Author: Eco-Imperialism: Green Power, Black Death

Eigil Friis-Christensen - Director, Danish National Space Center and Adjunct Professor, University of Copenhagen (who has since said his results were misused in the programme)

Nigel Lawson - Former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer

Richard Lindzen - Professor, Department of Meteorology, M.I.T.

Patrick Michaels - Research Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia

Patrick Moore - Co-founder, Greenpeace

Paul Reiter - Professor, Department of Medical Entomology, Pasteur Institute, Paris

Nir Shaviv - Professor, Institute of Physics, University of Jerusalem

James Shikwati - Economist, Author, and CEO of The African Executive

Frederick Singer - Professor Emeritus, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia (Misattributed in the film as Former Director, U.S. National Weather Service. From 1962-64 he was Director of the National Weather Satellite Service.)

Roy Spencer - Weather Satellite Team Leader, NASA

Philip Stott - Professor Emeritus, Department of Biogeography, University of London

Carl Wunsch - Professor, Department of Oceanography, M.I.T. (who has since repudiated the programme)

-------
Chillin


RE: Here's the reference...
By Rovemelt on 7/31/2007 3:52:43 PM , Rating: 2
http://www.journals.royalsoc.ac.uk/content/h844264...

The suggestion that solar output changes are driving global warming has been largely debunked. That's not to say there is no link between climate change and solar output (there is certainly more to learn here), rather the contribution from solar changes aren't enough to account for the climate change we're experiencing.

Here is the summary article:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6290228.stm


RE: Here's the reference...
By masher2 (blog) on 7/31/2007 4:25:42 PM , Rating: 1
> "The suggestion that solar output changes are driving global warming has been largely debunked..."

No. The link isn't based on direct solar output (e.g. direct radiative forcing, which indeed does not fully explain climate change) but rather solar activity. Changes in the heliosphere reduce cosmic ray flux, which acts to reduce cloud cover. According to Svensmark's research, this factor acts to amplify radiative forcing by up to a factor of four.

The research of Svensmark and the Danish Space Center has not been refuted.


RE: Here's the reference...
By Rovemelt on 7/31/2007 5:25:16 PM , Rating: 1
I understand that solar activity regulates cosmic ray flux, which is linked to cloud formation. However, there's no trend in the cosmic ray record from the 50's to now that can explain the recent warming. The article I linked to points out in the graphs large changes in cosmic ray count, but a steady warming of the earth.

Svensmark also had to revamp his theory after it was found that he used an incomplete cloud cover model. That's when he switched to a low cloud cover model. It seems like he's grasping onto this model and the more he uses it, the weaker the correlation.

The findings of Svensmark have been very controversial because there seems to be little link between cosmic rays and warming over the past 50 years, but difficult to assess as cloud formation remains difficult to model. From what I've read, the majority of climatologists just don't see cosmic rays accounting for the bulk of the recent change. Moreover, if cosmic rays were playing such a strong role, why are nighttime warming trends greater than daytime warming trends? Those two discrepancies put major holes in Svensmark's work, and he's going to have to pull some amazing research stunts to get around those.

Still, I have no doubt that cloud formation research needs to continue to improve climate models.

Here is a link to a Discover magazine interview with Svensmark. You should see what he says:

http://discovermagazine.com/2007/jul/the-discover-...

quote:
Do you agree that carbon dioxide is having at least some impact on Earth’s current warming?

Yes, but you have to give the sun a role. If you include the sun in the right way, the effect of CO2 must be smaller. The question is, how much smaller? All we know about the effect of CO2 is really based on climate models that predict how climate should be in 50 to 100 years, and these climate models cannot actually model clouds at all, so they are really poor. When you look at them, the models are off by many hundreds percent. It’s a well-known fact that clouds are the major uncertainty in any climate model. So the tools that we are using to make these predictions are not actually very good.

Do you think then that individuals and societies as a whole need to try to conserve energy? Do you use compact fluorescent lightbulbs, for instance?

Yes, yes, we use those. And I ride a bicycle. There are good reasons to conserve our resources and find a more economical way of using energy, but the argumentation is not linked necessarily to climate.


Even Svensmark is using caution here.


RE: Here's the reference...
By masher2 (blog) on 7/31/2007 5:48:45 PM , Rating: 2
Svensmark's "caution" is that he says there are good reasons to be efficient in our use of energy, reasons that have nothing to do with climate change. But he clearly and emphatically states that solar activity is the primary driver of climate change, not anthropogenic effects.

> "if cosmic rays were playing such a strong role, why are nighttime warming trends greater than daytime warming trends? "

Heavy cloud cover retains heat; this is pretty basic, and not disputed by anyone. Clouds are water vapor, a much stronger greenhouse gas than CO2.

In fact, this trend is more of a discrepancy for the CO2 hypothesis. CO2 warms the earth by absorbing the infrared band of sunlight...but sunlight obviously doesn't exist at night. You can only explain away the discrepancy by assuming radiative capture from the earth's surface...and clouds do that much better than CO2.

> "Svensmark also had to revamp his theory after it was found that he used an incomplete cloud cover model"

This just isn't true at all. His base theory has remained unchanged since he began work. Obviously his team uses more detailed models now, but the correlation demonstrated between cosmic ray flux and cloud formation has not only improved with these, but more importantly it has been experimentally confirmed with his team's work on the SKY cloud chamber.

That's when Svensmark's research really hit the limelight. Because-- in sharp contrast to CO2-based global climate models-- he has a working theory with excellent correlative properties coupled with hard experimental data to back it up.


RE: Here's the reference...
By Rovemelt on 7/31/2007 6:45:26 PM , Rating: 2
Svensmark changed his 1997 model after it was found that he used an incomplete cloud cover model:

Here is a link to a primary ref PDF that explains it:
http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/...
It's a big pdf, so it takes time to download. So much for the lack of controversy over Svensmark's findings.

And your analysis of warming trends and cloud cover needs adjustment:

Check out page 188+ of this book "Solar Activity and Earth's Climate" By Rasmus E. Benestad (physicist studying climate change): http://books.google.com/books?id=BdkCqOb6ivIC&pg=P...

That chapter highlights Svensmark research and shows how many holes it has, with references. It also presents the daytime/nighttime temperature problem that Svensmark research can't account for.


RE: Here's the reference...
By masher2 (blog) on 8/1/2007 10:49:14 AM , Rating: 1
> "Here is a link to a primary ref PDF that explains it:"

Laut was found to have been massaging the data rather vigorously to prove his point, as well as using some erronenous data source. Svensmark's rebuttal explains it fairly well:

quote:
[Laut] presents a figure 1c, which he claims is "a corrected and updated version for Fig 1a", where the correction consists in removing what [Laut] claims are "the irrelevant DMSP data". Laut also removes - without any comments or arguments = the Nimbus-7 data from 79-85....the careful reader [will] note he does not use the same DMSP data in his figures 1a and 1b...this is because the data in fig. 1a are restricted to Southern hemisphere over oceans, whereas fig 1b [is] restricted to midlatitude oceans.

It is remarkable that Laut references Kernthaler (1999)..as part of his argumentation against the above work...Kernthaler used the flawed ISCPP-C2 cloud type data, which makes their conclusions obsolete...
In any case, the entire argument is out of data, as Svensmark's current work is much more sophisticated, shows an even greater correlation, and is backed by hard experimental data from the SKY cloud formation experiments. You don't NEED a mathematical model to prove cosmic rays affect cloud formation when you've shown it actually occurs in the lab. It's a real, proven effect, not a hypothetical model.


RE: Here's the reference...
By High Planes Drifter on 8/1/2007 5:27:48 PM , Rating: 2