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Doom-and-gloomers are silent as another historically low year comes to a close

Back in July, I predicted 2007 would be a very mild hurricane season. Many called the claim premature, and even irresponsible, despite the fact that other media sources had months earlier predicted far more dire events.

Its now three months later and, with the season in the final month, my crystal ball seems vindicated. COAPS, the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, has just released data showing 2007 activity to be nearly 50% below average. In their own words, unless we experience a dramatic flurry in activity, 2007 will rank as historically inactive. Just as the year before was.

That's right -- two years in a row of historically low hurricane activity. Yet one of the primary fright-factor tenets of global warming is that it will increase hurricane activity. The real world contradicts the fright-factor predictions of computer models. Once again.

Is two years a trend? Not much ... but data shows landfalling hurricanes (the only kind accurately measured before satellite data) have trended downward the last half of the century. This is in line with the research mentioned in Part I of this blog, which predicts warming will lead to a more mild climate with fewer storms, not more.

There are, of course, computer models that claim the opposite. But like many other doom and gloom predictions, these aren't being born out by real-world data. And so it goes.

In 2005, a single hurricane season was used to justify all sorts of media scare stories about the effects of global warming. Now, with two very low years behind us -- and a century of gradual declines -- the media is suspiciously silent. Obviously bad news sells better than good ... but doesn't the public deserve some truth?




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